Project Description

In this project, I've developed a straightforward model to calculate the monthly growth trajectory of our product's user base. The model consists of three main sections:

This area allows for adjusting key variables that affect growth projections. The parameters include:

• Initial User Base: I assume an initial user base of 10 users, but this number can be adjusted.

• Conversion Behavior: Responses to the product are categorized into three groups:

  • 1. Yes (Immediate Adoption): Users who convert within the specified timeframe.

    2. No (Later Conversion): Users who convert after a delay.

    3. Never: Users who never convert.

These responses are modeled based on word-of-mouth marketing, assuming users influence others through product recommendations.

• Conversion Time Frame: Users are grouped into those who convert within the predefined conversion week and those who convert later, which is also adjustable.

• Influence Factor: This represents the number of additional users each initial user is expected to influence over a year. In the example, we assume each user influences 20 others.

• Market Cap: This defines the total potential market size. It helps track how close we are to saturating the available market.

The model calculates how user conversions will unfold over time, considering:

•  the initial user base, 

• the conversion behavior, and 

• the influence factor. 

For example, users who say "Yes" convert within the conversion week, while "No" users convert at a later stage. We also estimate how many people each user will influence and factor that into the growth projections.

To help visualize the growth, I've created a graph that shows user growth over a 12-month cycle, starting with the initial 10 users. These visualization provides insights into when we'll reach the market cap and how quickly the user base expands, based on the given parameters.